When the European Commission sent a proposal to the EU Council on April 1 to approve the volume of support for Ukraine for 2026, the technical work had already been completed. A 90 billion euro loan — the first 45 billion in 2026, the rest in 2027 — was agreed upon by EU leaders back in December 2025. But between "agreed" and "transferred" stands the Hungarian ambassador to the EU with the right of veto.

Why there is no unanimity

According to December agreements, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic supported the loan on one condition: no costs for interest or repayment on their part — the debt is guaranteed by the remaining 24 EU members. The condition seemed like a compromise, but on January 20, the Hungarian ambassador objected to the very mechanism of raising funds: Budapest does not want the EU to issue debt obligations backed by budget guarantees. A technical objection — with a clear pre-electoral undertone.

Analysts at ICU and representative of the Center for Public Finance Analysis at KSE Viktoria Klimchuk are confident: Ukraine will receive the loan under any circumstances. The question is only about timing — and time is precious here. Ukraine is already facing a budget deficit, and delays threaten yet another source of financing.

"Blocking EU credit puts at risk the approval of the IMF program for 8 billion dollars," notes Financial Times.

Financial Times

The logic is simple: the IMF ties its decision to whether Kyiv receives the European package. If the EU delays — the Fund also delays. Together this is about 53 billion euros in external financing, on which depends not only the payment of pensions and salaries to civil servants, but also weapons procurement and preparation of the energy system for the coming winter.

Sunday as a crossroads

On April 12, parliamentary elections will be held in Hungary — the first in 14 years where Orban's "Fidesz" really risks losing. According to a Median poll for HVG, conducted in the second half of March, the opposition "Tisza" of Peter Magyar leads the ruling coalition by 16 points among the entire population and by 20 points among those who have already decided. 47% of voters predict Magyar's victory, 35% — Orban's.

In Brussels, they openly acknowledge that they expect "Tisza" to win, Radio Free Europe reports citing sources in EU institutions. But even optimists warn: Magyar's new government will not necessarily remove all vetoes immediately. Orban, in turn, is betting on the theme of "war and peace" and, according to Bloomberg's assessment, is currently afraid to look weak — and therefore may hold the blocking until the last moment.

• If "Tisza" wins — Brussels expects the credit to be unblocked within weeks of the government being formed.
• If "Fidesz" remains — the EU is considering workaround mechanisms, but unanimity in the Council is still required: there will be no quick solution.
• In both scenarios — the first tranches for 2026, according to ICU and KSE forecasts, Ukraine will receive with a delay from the original schedule.

Delay is not an abstraction. According to Bloomberg, without funds from the EU, Ukraine risks failing to complete its energy system preparations for winter, and defense purchases in the second half of the year are put into question.

If after April 12 Hungary's new government does lift the blockade, but coalition formation drags on for a month or two — will the European Commission manage to transfer the first part of the loan before the critical mark of summer budget deficit?