Vladimir Putin has convinced his inner circle that Russia will capture the entire Donbas by the end of the year. This is not a diplomatic signal or a figure of speech — this is the dictator's personal bet on a military breakthrough, which most analysts consider unrealistic at the current pace of advances.

What The Guardian says and where the data comes from

The Guardian gathered testimonies from several sources: two have direct access to Putin's circle, others are representatives of Russian business and officers from Western intelligence services. The picture is consistent: the leader is isolated, the elite is disillusioned, and the decision-making system is increasingly detached from the reality of the front.

"This year, attitudes among the elite have certainly changed… there is deep disappointment in Putin. There is a growing sense that some kind of catastrophe is approaching".

— business leader with wide connections, source for The Guardian

At the same time, the same source clarifies: "Nobody believes that everything will collapse tomorrow. But there is growing awareness that absolutely senseless, self-destructive decisions continue to be made. People who once defended Putin are no longer doing so".

The gap between the map and decisions

The reality on the battlefield contradicts Putin's optimism. According to the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), in April 2026, Ukraine recaptured more territory than Russia captured — the first such "net loss" for Moscow since the Kursk operation in August 2024.

European intelligence, according to The Guardian, concluded that Putin is receiving distorted information about the situation on the front — generals have convinced him that a breakthrough is imminent. This is a classic trap of authoritarian systems: the greater the price of bad news for the person bringing it, the less truthful information reaches the top.

Sources from the leader's circle also warn: if Russia manages to break Ukraine's resistance, Putin will not stop at the Donbas but will attempt to capture unoccupied parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. "He is not a long-term strategist. His appetite grows while eating," the publication quotes one of the sources.

Why "elite disappointment" is not synonymous with "coup"

The Guardian directly warns against drawing excessive conclusions: concerns about an inevitable coup are exaggerated. Discontent in Putin's circles is not organized opposition but dispersed skepticism of people who depend on the system but have stopped believing in its course.

• Open criticism is too costly — the example of Prigozhin is telling.
• There is no alternative leader around whom discontent could crystallize.
• Economic pressure (inflation, interest rates, sanctions) hurts business but has not yet reached the level of breaking loyalty.

Instead, it is notable that criticism is coming from people who previously publicly supported Putin — particularly in nationalist circles, where until recently any doubt about victory was considered treason.

Context: between Trump and the front

Putin's statement that the war is "approaching completion" is actively being circulated in diplomatic circles, including by the Trump administration, as a signal of readiness for peace. Sources for The Guardian reject this interpretation: according to them, Putin means inevitable military breakthrough, not compromise. American intelligence, as reported by The Globe and Mail, also records the Kremlin's unchanged territorial ambitions — including claims to all of Ukraine.

This creates a dangerous gap: Washington is broadcasting "signals of peace," Moscow is preparing for "victory," and Kyiv is facing pressure to cede territories that Russia does not yet control.

If by the end of the year Russia does not achieve its declared breakthrough in the Donbas — will Putin's inner circle continue to silently swallow the gap between promises and reality, or will discontent finally take on an organized form?