A meeting of the Supreme Commander's Headquarters, held with the participation of weapons manufacturers and commanders, concluded with three specific signals: Russia is recruiting another 100,000 personnel, preparing operations from Belarusian territory, and planning new missile and drone strikes against "decision-making centers" in Ukraine.

What is known about the threat from the north

According to Zelenskyy, specialists from the GUR (Main Intelligence Directorate) of the Ministry of Defense obtained documents confirming Russia's preparation of strikes against Ukraine. In parallel, Russia, according to intelligence data, is considering two options for operations from Belarusian territory — either against the Chernihiv-Kyiv direction or against one of the NATO countries. The President reported that Ukraine already has details of negotiations between Moscow and Lukashenko, aimed at involving Minsk in a new phase of aggression.

"Russia is considering plans for operations in directions south and north of Belarusian territory — either against the Chernihiv-Kyiv direction in Ukraine, or against one of the NATO countries."

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, based on the results of the Headquarters meeting

The tactical context is important: on May 12, Lukashenko announced rotational mobilization of separate units "for preparation for war." As Euromaidanpress documented, Ukraine's GUR established earlier that Belarus is building training grounds, transport hubs, and logistics routes that Russia could use for an offensive "at any time." At the same time, ISW analysts note: despite Russia's steady buildup of its presence in Belarus, Moscow is using these threats primarily as a tool of cognitive warfare — to force Ukraine to maintain forces on the northern flank.

Mobilization and "decisions of the Transnistrian type"

Zelenskyy reported that Ukraine has obtained data on Russia's plans to recruit another 100,000 personnel. The President did not rule out "political decisions" — by analogy with Putin's recent decree on simplified granting of Russian citizenship to residents of Transnistria. At that time, Zelenskyy interpreted this step as "Russia marking foreign territory as its own" and instructed the Foreign Ministry to coordinate a position with Moldova.

The parallel is telling: such "political decisions" — passportization, introduction of peacekeepers, recognition — Moscow has already tested in Georgia and Donbas before 2022.

Response: Deep strikes and reinforcement of the direction

At the Headquarters, tasks were defined to expand the geography of long-range strikes against Russia. Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian strikes on oil refining infrastructure have already reduced Russia's oil refining sector by 10%, forced the shutdown of wells, and caused Russia's budget deficit to exceed its annual plan. Regarding the northern direction — the Armed Forces received orders to reinforce the grouping and prepare a response plan for each possible scenario.

• GUR obtained documents on Russia's preparation of missile and drone strikes against "decision-making centers"
• Belarus is building logistics suitable for an offensive — according to GUR assessment
• Lukashenko announced rotational mobilization "for preparation for war" on May 12
• Long-range strikes have already reduced Russia's oil refining by 10%, according to Zelenskyy
• The northern direction will be reinforced — specific parameters are not disclosed

The key question that remains open: if Russia is indeed redirecting part of the 100,000-strong reinforcement to Belarus rather than to the Donetsk front — will Ukraine have enough resources to simultaneously contain the north and not lose positions in the east without new Western weapons commitments?