Briefly

71% of Ukrainians do not believe that negotiations will lead to peace — these are the results of a March survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. This is not just a number: it shows how public opinion shapes the boundaries of possible political moves and expectations of partners.

Why they don't believe

Sociologists point to several reasons for the distrust. The predominant one is the conviction that Russia is not demonstrating a real readiness to end the war. This is a logical reaction to repeated breakdowns of agreements and the behavior of the aggressor.

Other reasons: experience of previous fruitless negotiations (14%), the belief that Ukraine's authorities are doing too little for the negotiation process (10%), and doubts about the reliability of Western support (10%). These factors amplify skepticism and shape expectations that negotiations will be used more as an instrument of pressure than as a direct path to peace.

At present Ukrainians may generally view the fact of negotiations positively, but see them not as a path to peace, rather as a way to demonstrate that it is Russia that is the obstacle to establishing peace.

— Kyiv International Institute of Sociology

History of sentiments: what has changed

In March 2025, 77% of Ukrainians viewed positively the initiative by Ukraine and the United States for a 30-day ceasefire, but among them only 18% considered it a real step toward peace. The majority (59%) supported the initiative as a way to show that it is Russia that is not ready for agreements — a conclusion also supported by LIGA.net materials about the nature of negotiations as parallel monologues.

Consequences for policy and security

The KIIS results have a direct impact on state strategy. When the majority does not believe in a rapid diplomatic outcome, demand grows for strengthening defense capability, transparency in negotiation actions, and clear signals from Western partners.

President Volodymyr Zelensky on March 19 already noted that the pause in talks had been prolonged, and that there were signals from the American side about their resumption; a meeting of the Ukrainian delegation with US representatives was expected on Saturday, March 21. These contacts are important not so much as a media event as a test of the partners' ability to turn diplomatic declarations into practical guarantees.

What this means for society and partners

Public distrust increases the need for three things: real defense capability, transparent information about the negotiation process, and a clear roadmap from international partners regarding security guarantees. Analysts agree that without an effective army and clear international guarantees, trust in negotiations will remain limited.

Conclusion

The KIIS numbers suggest that Ukrainian society is ready to perceive negotiations as an instrument of pressure rather than as a quick path to peace. Now the question for the authorities' teams and partners is whether signals and declarations will be turned into concrete steps that will raise trust and change this dynamic?