The electronic components of Russian Shahid-type attack drones are changing: the share of Chinese components is growing, while the presence of parts from the Netherlands is noticeably declining. This was stated by Vladislav Vliasyuk, a representative of the Presidential Office who coordinates work on imposing sanctions pressure on Russia.

This is not simply a change in specifications. It is a signal that sanctions pressure on individual suppliers is producing partial results — but Russia is adapting by seeking alternative sources where control is weaker.

The Netherlands closed the door — China opened the window

The Netherlands was one of the unwanted, but real suppliers of microelectronics that reached Iranian and subsequently Russian drones through complex intermediary chains. Following international pressure and its own investigations, the Dutch side strengthened export controls. The result is noticeable: components of Dutch origin in downed Shahids have become less prevalent.

However, China has not signed any commitments to limit supplies of dual-use goods to Russia and de facto remains a "gray zone" for electronic components. Microchips, navigation modules, controllers — all of this is produced in large volumes, and tracing the end consumer is extremely difficult.

What's inside the drone — and why it matters

Technical analysis of Shahid debris shot down over Ukraine is systematically conducted by several organizations, including Conflict Armament Research and Ukrainian special services. Their data allows tracking the origin of specific chips and boards — down to the manufacturing plant.

This evidentiary base became the foundation for sanctions packages against specific intermediary companies. The problem is that supply chains are being restructured faster than new sanctions are being imposed: months pass between the detection of a component and the introduction of restrictions.

Sanctions worked — but did not stop it

The reduction in the Dutch share is confirmation that targeted pressure on specific companies and countries is effective. However, the parallel growth of the Chinese component shows the limits of this approach: it works where there is political will to comply, and does not work where there is none.

China officially denies supplying military technology to Russia. At the same time, Chinese companies that manufacture dual-use components are not obligated to track where their products end up after resale through third countries — the UAE, Turkey, Hong Kong.

According to Vliasyuk, Ukraine continues to provide partners with technical evidence to expand sanctions lists. However, the effectiveness of this process comes down to one question: are the United States and the EU ready to impose secondary sanctions against Chinese manufacturers — and if not, what will force Beijing to change its behavior?