When most analysts in summer 2022 predicted the freezing of Kyiv's real estate market for years to come, the market acted differently. Deals resumed in the fall of that same year — first cautiously, then more confidently. By 2024, demand in the capital had recovered so much that some developers raised prices again.

Primary market: stability as marketing

Developers who survived 2022 without bankruptcy found themselves in an unusual position: their product became a symbol of reliability simply because they still exist. The average price per square meter in new Kyiv residential complexes in 2024 ranges between $1,200 and $2,800 depending on class and location — and this is 10–15% higher than a year ago.

The reason is not only demand. Construction costs have risen due to logistics, labor shortages, and energy prices. Developers pass this on to buyers — and buyers are willing to accept it so far, especially if the property is already in its final stage or completed.

Key nuance: 2024 buyers are significantly more cautious about the degree of readiness of the property. Foundation excavation has practically disappeared as a sellable product — people want to see walls, or better yet, keys.

Secondary market: discounts as the norm

The picture is different on the secondary market. Owners who evacuated and did not return are listing apartments — and forced to concede on price. A discount of 10–20% from the initial asking price has become the standard in negotiations, not an exception.

A separate segment is apartments in buildings without shelters or with critical building management association problems. Such properties are sold at discounts of up to 30% and are found mainly among buyers who are counting on their own renovations and long-term ownership.

Geographically, the most noticeable decline is in areas with the worst transport accessibility to shelters and without backup power supply. The left bank lags behind the right bank by an average of 15–20% in price dynamics.

Who is buying

The buyer profile has changed fundamentally. Investment demand — people who bought apartments for resale in a year or two — has declined sharply. Instead, the share of so-called forced buyers has grown: those who sold property elsewhere in Ukraine and are moving their families to Kyiv, or those who returned from abroad and decided to settle down.

Mortgages formally exist — the state program "eOselja" offers a rate of 3% for certain categories. But the actual volume of mortgage transactions remains negligible compared to the overall market: banks are cautious in assessing collateral in wartime conditions, and buyers do not want to take on 20-year obligations given current uncertainty.

Rent as an indicator

The rental market responded to Kyiv residents' return faster than sales. The cost of renting a one-bedroom apartment in residential areas has returned to pre-war levels and in some cases exceeded it — $400–600 per month in hryvnia equivalent at the current rate. This puts pressure on those renting and simultaneously increases the appeal of buying for those with savings.

Notably: the number of rental listings in Kyiv over the past year has decreased by approximately a quarter — the supply left the market because owners either returned themselves or secured tenants and removed properties from open platforms.

What's next — and under what conditions

The market is currently sustained by two assumptions: that Kyiv will remain the administrative and economic center regardless of scenarios at the front, and that the hryvnia will not fall critically. Both assumptions are holding up so far — but they are tested daily.

If the eOselja program expands to the secondary market without restrictions on construction year — and such discussions are already underway in the Finance Ministry — this could significantly revitalize deals in the old housing stock. The question is whether the state is ready to subsidize the risk that private banks refuse to take.