If it were just about money, the deal between the European Union and Great Britain would have been signed long ago. But behind every billion lies a separate blocker — and the biggest one is still sitting in Budapest.

What is being discussed and why now

According to Bloomberg sources, the EU and Britain are negotiating a mechanism that would allow Ukraine to purchase British weapons through a credit of €90 billion, approved by the European Council back in December 2025. Under the terms of the agreement, London will make a financial contribution to the EU's defense fund, in return receiving access to joint procurement mechanisms — and Ukraine will be able to spend credit funds on British weapons systems without bureaucratic delays.

The credit is structured as follows: €30 billion — for Ukraine's budgetary needs, €60 billion — for the purchase of weapons and ammunition. As confirmed by the European Parliament in February 2026, the loan is financed through joint EU borrowing on capital markets, with repayment expected after Russia compensates for the damages caused.

Britain: the price of entry turned out to be too high

Negotiations between London and Brussels over the SAFE instrument have been ongoing since 2025 — and have already reached a dead end once. British Defense Minister John Healy publicly confirmed: London was willing to pay for participation, but "SAFE did not meet the value-for-money criteria for British taxpayers and British industry". According to Bloomberg, the European Commission was offering Britain a contribution in the range of €4 to €6.75 billion — compared to Canada's one-time payment of €10 million.

The current round of negotiations, according to sources, is seeking a formula acceptable to both sides: Britain gets real market access, the EU — a financial partner outside the bloc.

Hungary: one blocker holds €90 billion

The main obstacle is not legal but political. Hungary has blocked the loan disbursement, despite 24 EU member states agreeing to proceed through enhanced cooperation, excluding Budapest, Bratislava, and Prague from financial obligations. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has linked his veto to demands to restore Russian oil supplies through the Druzhba pipeline.

In response, the European Commission froze the allocation to Hungary of approximately €16 billion in credits under the SAFE rearmament program — direct pressure: Budapest is very interested in these funds and is asking for more than a billion euros more than Brussels is offering.

"It is difficult to agree to billions of euros for Orbán when he is violating the principle of loyal cooperation and blocking money for a country at war with Russia".

EU diplomat, quoted by Polish publication Pravda Poland

April 12 as a reference point

Parliamentary elections in Hungary on April 12 — this is the moment both sides of the negotiations are focusing on. Polls from Gallup, Reuters, and The Economist show real competition between Fidesz and the opposition party "Tisza" of Péter Magyari. If Orbán loses his majority, the credit blockade is automatically lifted — and the deal between the EU and Britain becomes implementable in the short term.

Haidi Krebo-Rediker, analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations, emphasizes that Ukrainian defense industry — especially in the field of drones and electronic warfare — needs integration into unified EU and NATO procurement ecosystems to scale up. The British-European mechanism, if it works, will accelerate precisely this process.

What remains outside the framework

The deal being discussed has no publicly agreed mechanism to monitor the conditions under which Britain enters the fund and how risks are distributed in case Ukraine cannot service the credit. The repatriation of frozen Russian assets as a repayment source — for now is a legal construct, not a guarantee.

If Orbán retains power after April 12 — will the EU agree to unblock the loan bypassing Hungary through another legal mechanism, or will negotiations with Britain hang suspended for an indefinite period again?