What happened

The Foreign Intelligence Service (FIS) issued a warning about preparations for a provocation expected to cause significant human casualties during the celebration of Christmas according to the Julian calendar. According to the intelligence service, the operation is intended to create a pretext for accusations against Ukraine and to undermine the agreements mediated by the United States.

“We forecast with high probability a transition from manipulative influence to an armed provocation by Russian security services with significant human casualties.”

— Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine

Why this matters for negotiations

This is not simply an isolated incident. If the provocation takes place immediately before or during negotiations, it could shift the focus of discussion from politics to security and automatically weaken Ukraine’s position in diplomatic processes. According to the Wall Street Journal, the United States has already determined that Ukraine did not deliberately target drones at Putin’s residence — but falsification of evidence could overshadow that expertise.

Earlier, Sergey Lavrov circulated claims about an alleged attack on Putin’s residence; Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky called these statements “a lie.” This information background aligns with the scenario described by the FIS.

How the operation might look

According to the FIS’s assessment, a possible scenario includes selecting a symbolic target (a place of worship or another object of high symbolic value) and falsifying evidence — in particular by using fragments of strike drones of Western manufacture to provide “grounds” to accuse Ukraine. Such a method corresponds to known practices of false‑flag operations.

Consequences and risks

The main risks are the moral and political discrediting of Ukraine in the eyes of part of the international community and the possible legitimization of subsequent forceful responses by the Kremlin. At the same time, falsification could complicate the work of analytical and forensic teams if they are not given timely access to the scene and the evidence.

“The exploitation of fear and the commission of terrorist acts with human casualties under a ‘foreign flag’ fully corresponds to the modus operandi of Russian security services.”

— Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine

What to do next

Clear coordination with international partners is needed: rapid verification of evidence, access for independent experts, and transparent information sharing with the international community. This reduces the space for manipulation and makes falsifications less effective. It is also important not to give in to provocative narratives until an independent investigation is completed.

Brief conclusion

The FIS warning is not only a signal for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and security services, but also for diplomats and media partners: on the eve of the holidays both informational and physical attempts at destabilization are expected. If the international community responds quickly and transparently, the possibility of manipulation of evidence decreases — and negotiations will have a chance to remain on a civilized track.