Briefly

The Guardian, relying on interviews with more than 100 current and former officials from Ukraine, the United States and Europe, as well as on a CIA analysis, concludes: the decision to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine was formed as early as the first half of 2020. This changes the perception of the timeline of events and suggests that a series of seemingly disparate incidents created favorable conditions for the Kremlin's plan.

Sources and reasoning behind the conclusion

The Guardian journalists interviewed over a hundred interlocutors — from Ukrainian officials to Western intelligence officers. According to them, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency accumulated a large amount of information about the Kremlin's intentions but initially could not precisely determine the moment the decision was made. Subsequent analysis indicates that the first half of 2020 is the most likely period when it was formalized.

Analysts point to several factors: amendments to the Russian constitution (to consolidate power after 2024), Putin's self-isolation during the pandemic and a deep immersion in Russian history, and the tactical exploitation of external and internal events to create opportunities to carry out the plan.

Belarus and Navalny: how opportunities were created

The summer suppression of protests in Belarus in 2020 increased Alexander Lukashenko's dependence on the Kremlin, which, investigators conclude, opened the option of using Belarusian territory as a springboard. At the same time, the poisoning of Alexei Navalny and the weakening of his potential domestic support reduced the Kremlin's risk of internal political destabilization in Russia.

Warning signs

The first visible signs of preparation appeared in spring 2021 — a mass buildup of troops along the borders and in Crimea under the pretext of exercises. This was no longer isolated maneuvering but an element of a larger plan, if one accepts the findings of The Guardian's investigation and internal intelligence assessments.

"Putin made the decision to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in the first half of 2020."

— The Guardian, investigation based on more than 100 sources

"Before the full-scale invasion by the Russian Federation, the then Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Zaluzhnyi, was advised by the U.S. to 'dig trenches.'"

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, 14 February 2026

"Russia began preparing for a full-scale invasion from mid-2019, deploying troops along the borders."

— Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, November 2025

What this means for Ukraine today

If the decision was indeed made earlier than previously thought, this underlines two points: first, the aggression was part of a planned strategy, not merely an impulsive act; second, the role of intelligence and diplomacy in detecting and deterring such intentions is critically important. For the public and partners, this is a signal — not only about how the attack was prepared, but also about how to turn the lessons of the past into concrete security measures and support.

Conclusion

The Guardian's investigation adds an important layer to understanding the motivation and timing of the Kremlin's plan. This is not only a historical clarification of the timeline — it is a reminder that information and analysis decisively shape policy and defense. The ball is now in the partners' court: facts need to be transformed into durable security guarantees and practical assistance for our Armed Forces and intelligence services.