In great diplomacy, quiet arrangements matter more than loud statements

Bloomberg writes that Donald Trump’s rhetoric in recent years often undermined allies’ trust — but in the event of a military campaign against Iran it was precisely European infrastructure that became critical for the United States. This is not merely political childishness, hysterics, or emotional outbursts directed at leaders — it is a question of bases, overflights, and ports without which a rapid military operation is impossible.

What happened

For years Trump criticized Europeans for being overly dependent on US protection. However, during the operation against Iran Washington needed European capabilities: logistics hubs in Germany, airbases in the United Kingdom, seaports in Spain, and overflight permissions. Simultaneous public disputes — from criticism to threats of economic sanctions — did not change the essence: for the US to project power it needs allies on the ground.

Why it matters for Ukraine

This story is not about alliances as an abstraction, but about the infrastructure that provides operational capabilities and intelligence. European territory is used not only for operations against Iran, but also for intelligence gathering, coordination of actions concerning Ukraine, and logistical support. For us this yields two key points:

1) The stability of support depends not only on Washington’s rhetoric, but on those who allow capabilities to be used on their territory.
2) Erosion of trust between the US and Europe creates additional risks for Ukraine: from slowed deliveries to more complicated coordination of intelligence.

Details to remember

• Mid-February — The Times reported that the British prime minister initially refused use of British airbases for strikes on Iran; the official objection was linked to international law.
• February 28 — the US and Israel launched Operation “Epic Fury,” striking Tehran and other cities.
• March 1 — the British government announced a change of position and permission to use certain facilities.
• March 2 — it became known that American aircraft left Spain after its government barred the use of bases for strikes on Iran.

“This is a signal of eroding trust — the US is paying a price for having failed to show solidarity with allies, and now they may be an unreliable beneficiary of their support. The US needs strong allies; you never know when they will be needed. And the US does not know where this conflict will lead.”

— Ian Lesser, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund (USA)

What’s next

Public disputes do not always mean a break — quiet consultations and adjustments of positions often take place. At the same time, for Ukraine this episode is a reminder: partner support can be intermittent, so our strategy must have two components — strengthening diplomatic ties with allies and increasing our own operational resilience.

Analytical view: Europe today holds elements that determine the speed and duration of an American campaign. For Kyiv this is a guide — a reminder of the importance of infrastructure and of the need to convert allies’ statements into concrete tools of support.