In brief

Donald Trump's interview with the Financial Times has turned the security of the Strait of Hormuz into a public demand of allies — from Europe to China. This is not simply the geopolitics of oil routes: in the context of the war in Ukraine, any diversion of Washington's efforts has direct consequences for the sanctions and diplomatic pressure on Moscow.

What Trump said

"It is entirely appropriate that the people who benefit from the strait help ensure that nothing bad happens there… If there is no response or if it is negative, I think that will be very bad for the future of NATO"

— Donald Trump, President of the United States (interview with the Financial Times)

He directly called on France, the United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea and China to "join the collective effort," describing possible assistance as "anything" — from minesweepers to forces that could operate along the Iranian coast. Trump also linked this to plans for a trip to Beijing.

Why it matters for Ukraine

The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic artery: about one-fifth of the world's oil and a significant portion of LNG transit through it. Prioritizing measures in the Middle East could divert U.S. diplomatic and military attention from Europe and the task of deterring Russia. As the Financial Times writes, an intensification of tensions in the Middle East could reduce pressure on Moscow and even lead to an easing of sanctions — estimates put the figure at around $10 billion in gains for Russia, which the Ukrainian president noted.

Technical details and the allies' stake

Trump drew attention to the fact that European navies have more minesweepers than the U.S., and tried to shift responsibility for operations onto those who are economically dependent on the strait. This is an argument not only about resources but also about political pressure: if Europe and others pay the price for security, the distribution of responsibility within NATO will change.

What experts say

FT analysts and regional experts note that the intersection of American policy with the real foreign-policy interests of China and the EU creates room for bargaining, where the security of routes can become a price in a broader game of influence. LIGA.net has asked whether Europe will not become a player forced to live with less reliable guarantees from the U.S.

Consequences and scenarios

The least desirable scenario for Ukraine is when efforts around the Strait of Hormuz divert sanctions and diplomatic pressure on Russia, giving the Kremlin room for economic recovery. More likely is a scenario of partial mobilization of international resources toward multilateral operations under U.S. leadership, which would preserve the overall course but stretch partners' attention.

"Relaxing sanctions could give Russia about $10 billion"

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine (quoted by FT)

What's next

Now it's up to the allies: declarations must turn into concrete steps that do not reduce pressure on Moscow or weaken the sanctions architecture. For Kyiv, the key task is to keep sanctions and defensive assistance among partners' priorities, even if diplomatic resources are temporarily reoriented to the Middle East.

The question that remains: will partners be able to find a balance between securing energy routes and maintaining an unchanged deterrence policy toward Russia? That will determine not only market stability but also the strategic support for Ukraine.