Adria put to the test: can the Trans-Adriatic pipeline replace "Druzhba" — what it means for the region
MOL and Croatian operator JANAF are launching a 10-month testing program for the Adria pipeline. The tests are meant to determine the pipeline's actual throughput capacity and logistical constraints — a result that could change oil supply routes in Central Europe and affect transit through Ukraine.
By Tetiana Suchkova-Ladik
March 9, 2026 · 2 min read
Briefly
Hungarian MOL and Croatian operator JANAF are beginning a series of tests of the Adria pipeline to check whether it can become a real alternative to the Russian Druzhba route. The program will run for 10 months and will include load testing in different seasons, an assessment of port infrastructure, and tanker unloading logistics.
What exactly they are testing
Tests start on March 11 and will consist of several stages. They will check the pipeline's throughput capacity under different weather conditions and with different crude grades, as well as all related logistics — from ports to crude blending. Independent specialists will be involved in monitoring: MOL will invite American experts, JANAF — German ones.
"The aim of the tests is to obtain an objective picture of the real throughput capacity of Adria and to identify logistical bottlenecks before making business decisions."
— MOL, press release
Technical and timing constraints
Even if the tests are successful, the pipeline will not operate at full capacity immediately. Slovnaft in Bratislava is already running at full capacity, but another key MOL refinery — the Danube Refinery in Budapest — has limited output until the AV‑3 unit is restored, expected in the autumn. A peak daily flow of 40,000 tonnes will only be possible after that restoration.
Legal and political risks
The problem is not only pipes and pumps: MOL currently does not have a valid transport contract through Adria for 2026. In addition, there is the question of whether JANAF will allow the transit of oil of Russian origin, which is not formally under sanctions. These legal uncertainties could delay commercial use even if technical tests are successful.
Context for Ukraine
The southern branch of the Druzhba pipeline that runs through Ukraine was an important route for refineries in Central Europe. After the transit halt on January 27, 2026 — following an attack on the infrastructure — neighbors have been more actively seeking alternatives.
If Adria demonstrates stable throughput and receives political backing, some flows could be diverted from the route through Ukraine. That would not automatically mean the loss of all transit: the real effect will depend on contracts, pricing conditions, and how quickly Ukrainian infrastructure is restored.
What’s next
The test results are expected to become clear in early 2027. Analysts stress that even a positive result is only one component of a larger picture. Clear contracts, refinery upgrades, and political decisions are needed to determine which flows will ultimately be secured to new routes.
In summary: testing Adria is an important step for Central Europe in seeking energy diversification. For Ukraine it is a signal: the regional energy architecture is changing, and it is up to us how quickly and securely transit capabilities will be restored and strengthened.
