Money loves silence: why you should read this

Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine (AMCU) has opened proceedings on signs of anti-competitive coordinated actions in the fuel market — and this directly affects the budget of everyone who drives a car or depends on logistics. AMCU head Pavlo Kyrylenko came to the Verkhovna Rada on March 11 to report on the initial results and explain why the regulator started acting now.

What the AMCU has already done

According to Kyrylenko, the first signals of unjustified fuel price increases appeared on February 28. On March 2 the committee sent official requests to the largest chains and began meetings with individual market operators. On March 9 the case was formally opened for review, and on March 11 the AMCU chief reported to parliament.

"Despite the presence of objective factors driving up prices for light petroleum products, the committee does not rule out that such a situation may also have been caused by certain subjective factors."

— Pavlo Kyrylenko, head of the AMCU

What exactly is being investigated

The focus of the investigation is not on general market trends, but on the sequence and justification of price increases by each individual operator. The AMCU is analyzing whether companies had exclusive grounds for simultaneous and sharp hikes, or whether this could have been the result of coordinated actions.

Objective factors that also drive price increases

The regulator and the market name several real drivers: after the shutdown of the Kremenchuk refinery (expected from 2025), more than 85% of light petroleum products in Ukraine will depend on imports. At the same time, global quotations have fluctuated: on March 9 oil prices briefly exceeded $100 per barrel, whereas on March 11 futures were around $90 per barrel.

There was also a sharp jump in demand: sales of A-95 gasoline increased by 40–70%, diesel by 60–140%. Prices are also being pushed up by higher logistics costs and forecasts of further increases in production costs.

What this means for consumers and the market

If the investigation finds coordinated actions, operators face fines and obligations to change their pricing practices. Even without such findings, the combination of import dependence, global market volatility and a demand spike creates the risk of short-term price waves and possible local shortages.

What happens next

The AMCU said the review will focus specifically on subjective market factors — the sequence of operators' decisions and whether each company has justifications. Market analysts and media, including LIGA.net, are already analyzing in more detail which supply and pricing scenarios are possible in the coming months.

Now the ball is in the operators' and the regulator's court: whether explanations will turn into concrete corrective steps that reduce pressure on prices is a question on which the wallets of many Ukrainians depend.