When the price of oil rises, some tally the losses. BYD counts the profits.

The head of China’s largest electric-vehicle maker, Wang Chuanfu, said at a closed briefing for analysts on Monday that the sharp rise in oil prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East will lift the company’s overseas sales “to another level” this year. According to informed sources cited by Nikkei Asia, Wang singled out Australia, New Zealand and the Philippines — markets where BYD now sells in a day as many cars as it previously sold in two weeks. The official growth forecast is 15%.

Wang’s wording is telling: “Replacing gasoline vehicles with transport powered by new energy sources is no longer a matter of choice but a necessity tied to energy security.” This is not environmental rhetoric. It is a pragmatic argument for a buyer who has just seen expensive petrol at the pump again.

The mechanism is simple

High oil hits the wallets of drivers in countries that import fuel. The electric car suddenly becomes not a trendy gadget but an economical solution. BYD, which maintains one of the lowest price positions among global electric-car makers, finds itself in the ideal spot for that demand.

This is not the first time geopolitical shocks have accelerated the shift to electric propulsion. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Europe recorded a sharp rise in interest in electric vehicles precisely against the backdrop of the energy crisis — and then Chinese manufacturers were also among the main beneficiaries.

An uncomfortable subtext

A public admission by a company executive that an armed conflict is commercially beneficial is a rare frankness for the corporate world. Usually such things remain in internal presentations. That Wang’s words became known via sources to Nikkei Asia, and not through an official communiqué, speaks to the context: it was a conversation with analysts, not a press conference.

BYD does not manufacture weapons and does not finance conflicts — the company simply sells electric cars. But the logic “our benefit depends on the duration of instability” creates a specific incentive that is rarely voiced aloud in any industry.

It is worth noting the geography of growth: Australia, New Zealand, the Philippines — this is not Europe with its protectionist tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. These are markets where BYD can enter without significant barriers while Brussels and Washington build tariff walls.

If oil prices remain high for another year, BYD will likely meet its forecast. The question is another: are the governments of the countries buying these cars prepared to consider that dependence on the Chinese auto industry may prove to be as strategic a problem as the former dependence on Middle Eastern oil?