In March 2025, India imported 2.06–2.1 million barrels of Russian oil per day — nearly twice as much as in February. Monthly oil imports from Russia doubled in volume and nearly quadrupled in value, reaching $6.2 billion compared to €1.4 billion in February. The country's total oil import volume, however, fell from 5.2 to 4.4 million barrels per day — India was replacing lost Middle Eastern supplies rather than increasing overall consumption.

Where These Barrels Came From

A temporary easing of American sanctions on Russian oil quickly reshuffled global flows: India once again became the dominant buyer of previously "stuck" barrels. This refers to tankers that were stranded after sanctions were imposed in October–November 2024 against Rosneft and Lukoil. Floating storage facilities at the beginning of the year contained 19 million barrels, but by the end of April had shrunk to 8 million — most volumes are already concentrated in Asian waters.

State-owned Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) became the largest buyer in March, nearly doubling its purchase volume to 660,000 barrels per day. Meanwhile, India chartered six tankers with Venezuelan oil for April — to compensate for heavy Iraqi grades that are also in short supply due to regional tensions.

Why Washington Allows This

The U.S. Department of Treasury decided to extend until May 16 permission to purchase sanctioned Russian oil and petroleum products loaded on vessels as of April 17. This decision excludes operations involving Iran, Cuba, and North Korea. State Secretary Bessent explained the move as pressure from more than a dozen countries needing time to reorient their supplies.

The cost to Indian consumers is indirect but noticeable. Urals, which previously traded at a deep discount to Brent, moved to a rare premium of $8 per barrel — meaning India is paying more than during the "cheap" sanctioned oil period of 2022–2023.

"For India and its regional partners, the signal is unambiguous: Russian barrels are back — and room for maneuver is shrinking."

Natalia Katona, commodity markets analyst (OilPrice.com)

What Happens After May 16

The temporary waiver does not solve the systemic problem. Purchases from Rosneft and Lukoil account for 60% of Indian imports, so abandoning them will force a search for alternatives. Sanctions on these companies caused a rise in global Brent prices of 8%, and the increase in import costs for India is estimated at $6–7 billion per year.

India sought supplies from Russia primarily to ensure affordable energy and curb inflation while maintaining autonomy in foreign policy. But pressure is mounting: in August 2025, the Trump administration imposed 50-percent tariffs on Indian imports, with 25% directly tied to continued purchases of Russian oil.

The floating storage is melting away. If the U.S. does not extend the waiver again by May 16, Indian refineries will face a choice: pay the sanctions premium through intermediaries or drastically reorient to Middle Eastern grades under conditions where the Strait of Hormuz remains a risk zone. Will this balance hold if Washington decides to close the "window" without a new extension?