What happened

In December 2024 shipments of Russian crude oil to India fell to about 1.1 million barrels per day — the lowest level since November 2022. Bloomberg reports this citing data from analysts at Kpler. The decline occurred against the backdrop of tightened U.S. sanctions on Russian energy companies.

"Flows of Russian crude oil to India in December 2024 fell to the lowest level since November 2022 — about 1.1 million barrels per day."

— Bloomberg / Kpler data

Why this happened

The key factor is the restrictions the U.S. imposed at the end of November on Rosneft and Lukoil. The sanctions not only limited access to certain suppliers but also sharply raised freight rates for supertankers and forced the market to reassess delivery risks. As a result, the price of Urals for India fell, but logistical and legal barriers made imports more difficult.

How Indian companies are responding

State refineries (Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum) continue to buy Russian oil partly because of discounts. Reliance — the largest private refiner — had suspended purchases after the sanctions, but on December 24 resumed imports, working with suppliers not subject to the restrictions. Important: Russian oil is used mainly for India's domestic market, notably at Reliance's giant plant in Jamnagar.

What this means for the markets and for Ukraine

First, it shows that the sanctions tool works not just as rhetoric — it alters trade flows and reduces revenues of the Russian energy sector. Second, the reduction in purchases at discounted prices creates a double-edged effect: in the short term — a reduction in the Kremlin's revenues; in the long term — the risk that Moscow will seek new markets and even larger discounts.

For Ukraine this is an important strategic effect: reducing Russia's resource base complicates financing the war. However, the effectiveness of the sanctions will depend on whether partners can consistently close the routes for evading restrictions and control shipping chains.

What to watch next

Analysts point to three markers to watch: the dynamics of supertanker freight rates, volumes of shipments to other consumers (China, Turkey, some African ports) and the behavior of major Indian players. If the trend of reduced purchases continues without replacement by other markets — this will mean prolonged pressure on Russian revenues.

Conclusion

The reduction of Russian oil imports to India is not a one-day anomaly, but part of a broader market reaction to sanctions and logistical changes. For Ukraine this means: sanctions pressure can work as an element of a strategy to weaken the aggressor's economic base, but for a sustainable result coordination among partners and control over routes of evasion are needed. For now the markets are speaking — they should be listened to closely.