Bloomberg reports: since the start of the US and Israel operation against Iran, Tehran may have been receiving an additional hundreds of millions of dollars from oil sales. This is not just statistics — it is a change in market logic that has direct consequences for fuel prices and inflation in Ukraine.

How Iran turned the crisis into cash flow

According to Bloomberg, using estimates from TankerTrackers.com, the price of the Iranian grade Iranian Light has shifted: the discount to Brent narrowed to about $2.10 per barrel, whereas previously the discount exceeded $10. This means that despite the discount, higher global prices compensate for margin losses.

Analysts estimate that in March Iran could have been earning about $139 million a day from sales of Iranian Light compared with $115 million in February. Exports remained close to pre-war levels — roughly 1.6 million barrels per day.

Why is this happening? Because of complications to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran has effectively remained one of the few major exporters whose vessels transit the region without significant restrictions, while transit for other fleets has become more difficult. Additionally, Iran charges transit fees — sometimes up to $2 million from individual ships, which further boosts state revenue.

"The Trump administration is practically begging Iran to sell oil. I thought that banning the sale of Iranian oil should have been a priority for the United States"

— Richard Nephew, senior research scholar at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy

What this means for Ukraine

Disruptions to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz have a global impact: according to the IEA, in 2025 an average of about 20 million barrels per day passed through the strait — roughly 25% of seaborne trade in oil and oil products. Any dysfunction there instantly pushes prices up — and these fluctuations are felt by the Ukrainian fuel market.

LIGA.net has already explained why fuel is rapidly becoming more expensive in Ukraine: disrupted supply chains, market uncertainty and additional transport costs. For the Ukrainian consumer this means a risk of rising prices, pressure on inflation and potential supply interruptions if global tensions intensify.

What will change next — scenarios

There are several key risks and opportunities. If Iran maintains export flows and global prices remain high, additional revenues to Tehran's budget will continue. A temporary suspension of sanctions on oil already on tankers could further increase sales.

But an escalation of the conflict or new restrictions could again distort the market and trigger price spikes. In the near term for Ukraine, what matters is not only global trends but real coordination with partners — procurement programs, building strategic reserves and supporting logistics.

Now the ball is in the partners' court: will international declarations be turned into concrete contracts and mechanisms to stabilize supply, reducing risks for the Ukrainian consumer and the economy?