Essence and why it matters

In the first weeks of January diesel import volumes were lower than expected, despite increased demand due to cold snaps and widespread use of generators. The main reason is record December deliveries that filled the market’s resources and provided a time buffer, writes Enkorr. For consumers this means relative price stability in the short term, but also increased dependence on logistics corridors and the quality of winter batches.

What happened to prices

As of 23 January the retail diesel price stood at 48–48.50 UAH/l, and after news from London fell to 47.70–47.80 UAH/l. Some companies that delayed sales held around ~49 UAH/l (UNTK, "Martin Trade"). A week earlier minimal sales were recorded in the range 46.90–47.30 UAH/l. This corresponds to practice: prices are adjusted not only by demand but also by delivery timing and the fuel’s origin.

Routes and quality — the key to winter reliability

Logistical reorientation is noticeable: from 12 to 18 January 82% of imports arrived via the Polish border — significantly more than the 53–54% at the end of November–early December. At the same time shipments from Lithuanian ORLEN Lietuva more than doubled to 14,500 tonnes. This matters because part of the imported batches (of Polish and American origin) have better winter characteristics, which is critical during frosts.

Imports from Poland increased by 16% — to 57,000 tonnes. Among recipient companies named were UPG, ZPEK, BRSM-Nafta, Unimot Ukraine and Primaoil. Such redistribution of routes and fuel origins is an example of the market adapting to climate risks and logistical challenges.

Volumes and forecasts

Delivery rates in January remain moderate — slightly more than 400,000 tonnes are expected, although traders are considering higher scenarios. For context: in January last year imports were 315,400 tonnes, with December deliveries of 645,100 tonnes — totaling 960,500 tonnes for the two months. This year’s projected seasonal import is about 1.2 million tonnes, which is 26% more than in the 2024–2025 season.

"We forecast we'd reach 500,000 tonnes, but seeing the mood of market participants, the figure is most likely to be higher"

— one of the southern traders (comment to Enkorr)

Risks and assurances

Despite rising demand due to generators, fuel companies report no problems with supply. Deputy Energy Minister Mykola Kolisnyk confirmed that the country’s fuel market is functioning stably and is supplied with the necessary resources. However, the main risks remain logistical (disruptions at western borders, weather problems) and dependence on imported batches with certain cold-resistance characteristics.

"The fuel market in Ukraine is functioning stably and is fully supplied with the necessary resource"

— Mykola Kolisnyk, Deputy Minister of Energy

Conclusion

In short: low imports in January are not synonymous with a shortage, but a consequence of large December deliveries and reorientation of routes to the west. For the Ukrainian consumer this means relative price stability in the short term, but also the need to closely monitor logistics and the quality of winter batches. The key question now is whether supply corridors and customs clearance speeds at the western frontiers will hold up to confirm the seasonal forecast of 1.2 million tonnes.