Oil at $58 — Gasoline Still the Same: Why Gas Station Prices Lag Behind the Market
Brent falls to four-year low as OPEC+ increases production volumes — but Ukrainian private gas station networks are in no hurry. Government pressures through Ukrnafta.
By Oleg Bazylewicz
April 8, 2026 · 2 min read
Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko met with the head of the board of NAK "Naftogaz" Sergiy Koretsky and publicly called on fuel market operators to lower prices. The reason is not domestic politics, but a global shift in the oil market.
What happened in the global market
On April 7, 2025, Brent crude fell to a four-year low — below $60 per barrel, and after OPEC+'s decision on May 3 to increase production by an additional 411 thousand barrels per day — dropped to $58. Triggers: escalation of the tariff war between the US and China and Saudi Arabia's demonstrative course toward increasing supply. According to Reuters data, this made oil one of the worst commodity assets of 2025.
For comparison: in February 2022, at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Brent cost over $110. The current decline is not a correction, but a structural shift.
Mechanism of pressure — state "Ukrnafta"
There is no direct price regulation for fuel in Ukraine. Therefore, the government traditionally uses the state gas station network "Ukrnafta" as a valuable price benchmark for the market. Svyrydenko confirmed: "Ukrnafta" has already begun reducing prices. A signal for private networks.
"Fuel prices should be formed fairly, taking into account the current situation, including global markets, but without internal speculation. Regulatory bodies, in particular the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine and the State Food and Consumer Service, should conduct proper monitoring"
Yulia Svyrydenko
This is not the first time that the AMCU has been used as a tool to pressure gas station operators. Last time — during a price surge due to the Middle East situation — the committee sent requests to the largest networks demanding explanations for the increase. Then, as DeepState noted, there was no real impact of the Middle East crisis on Ukrainian prices — the networks took advantage of the information occasion.
How much and when
Economist Oleg Pendzyn forecasts a noticeable reduction in petroleum products at Ukrainian gas stations in the near future — if oil remains at $60 and below. Svyrydenko clarified: "If current global dynamics persist, a more significant decline is expected".
The problem is that there is a lag between the fall in quotations and the pump price — logistics, customs, distributor margins. Private operators typically respond to price declines more slowly than to price increases.
If OPEC+ does not reverse its production decision in June, and the US-China tariff confrontation does not ease — the market will have new grounds for decline. But if private networks again wait for "Ukrnafta" to be the first to lower prices, the question to the AMCU will not be rhetorical: why does monitoring only work after public pressure from the prime minister?
