From May 4-10, only one oil tanker departed from Novorossiysk. According to Bloomberg data, this caused the average weekly export figure to drop to 3.64 million barrels per day — the first decline since March. For comparison: the week before — 3.68 million. The difference is small in percentage terms, but it's already a loss from the budget that finances the war.

Three converging factors

Bloomberg cites two possible explanations for the shutdown — unfavorable weather and the threat of Ukrainian drone attacks. But there is a third, official one: in May, Transneft announced a 90-day ban on berth No. 8 operations following an unscheduled inspection by transport supervisory authorities.

"A temporary ban on operations has been introduced at oil berth No. 8. The port authority is required to eliminate all identified violations by June 30, 2025"

— Transneft statement cited by Reuters

According to Rigzone, inspections are being conducted by order of Putin following a large-scale oil spill in the Black Sea in December of last year — and also cover the ports of Taman and Tuapse. In other words, regulatory pressure on the entire Black Sea infrastructure has increased systematically, not just in Novorossiysk.

In parallel — drones. Ukrainian unmanned aircraft have previously forced Transneft to halt oil pumping to the port, and an attack on the Sheskharis oil depot damaged shore facilities. Two terminals near Novorossiysk — Sheskharis and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal — together pump over 2 million barrels per day, making any shutdown here felt on the global market.

What this means for the Kremlin

Prices for Russian oil from Black Sea and Pacific ports, according to Bloomberg citing Argus Media, have already fallen to the lowest level since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022. Pressure simultaneously from three sides — regulatory, security, and price-related — is reducing the margin that Moscow can direct toward its defense budget.

• Regulator closed berth No. 8 until the end of June
• Drones create constant uncertainty for tanker operators
• Urals price at its lowest since 2022

Meanwhile, Transneft refuses to comment on any shutdowns related to security incidents — which complicates external assessment of actual losses.

If the ban on berth No. 8 remains in place until June 30, and drone threats do not disappear, the key question is whether Russia will be able to compensate for the Black Sea shortfall through Baltic and Far Eastern ports quickly enough to avoid feeling it in the budget already in June.