A Bloomberg April report recorded a figure that hadn't appeared since the Persian Gulf War: OPEC production fell to 20.55 million barrels per day — the lowest level since 1990. But the figure itself is less telling than the reason behind it.

One strait — a fifth of the world

The Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman is a 54-kilometer shipping corridor. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in 2024, 20 million barrels passed through it daily — approximately 20% of global oil and oil product consumption. There are virtually no alternative routes: bypass pipelines cover only a small fraction of this volume.

When in February–March 2026 a conflict between the USA, Israel, and Iran paralyzed shipping through the strait, Kuwait, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia found themselves trapped by their own reserves: the oil exists, but there's nowhere to ship it.

March collapsed sharply, April consolidated the decline

According to Bloomberg, production fell steeply in March by 8.6 million barrels per day — the largest decline in a decade. April added another 420,000 barrels per day in cuts: additional pressure came from losses in Kuwait and Iran.

"Seven OPEC+ countries decided to implement production adjustments of 188,000 barrels per day" — a symbolic increase for June that the cartel announced against the backdrop of an actual supply collapse.

OPEC+ statement following the meeting, May 2026

Analysts called the decision "largely symbolic": actual production by signatory countries is limited not by quotas but by the physical impossibility of transportation.

UAE exits — and this changes the equation

Parallel to the production decline, the UAE announced its exit from OPEC, freeing itself from cartel limits. According to OPEC estimates, the Emirates possess 6.7% of proven global oil reserves — approximately 98 billion barrels. As economist Vitaliy Shapran explains, the UAE's motivation is primarily security-related: the country suffered most from Iranian strikes. When the conflict ends and the Emirates resume full production, this will create downward pressure on prices — and directly impacts Russia's revenues in Asian markets.

What $80 per barrel means for Ukraine

After the Strait of Hormuz blockade, Brent jumped to $82 and higher. For Ukraine, this is a double-edged sword: lower Russian oil revenues in case of a prolonged conflict and limited supplies — and simultaneously higher costs for imported fuel and logistics. According to the baseline consensus of the EIA, Goldman Sachs, and J.P. Morgan, Brent in 2025–2026 will remain in the range of $60–70 per barrel — but this is a scenario without escalation.

If the strait remains blocked for another month or two, the IEA forecasts that global oil supply in 2026 could reach a record 108.6–108.7 million barrels per day — but primarily due to the USA, Brazil, and Guyana, rather than the Persian Gulf.

The question is not whether OPEC production will resume — it will, once the strait opens. The question is whether the cartel can maintain unity before the UAE, Russia, and Saudi Arabia begin competing for the same Asian markets without joint quotas.