In January 2026, restaurant consultant and director of the analytical center "Restaurants of Ukraine" Olha Nasonova warned: due to blackouts and freezing temperatures, visitor numbers to establishments halved, and by spring Kyiv could lose up to 20% of its restaurants. April data from OLX Real Estate shows that the worst-case scenario did not materialize — but it is premature to speak of recovery yet.

What happened with supply

The number of listings for renting premises for cafes and restaurants in the first quarter increased by 33% in Dnipro, by 25% in Odesa, and by 16% in Kyiv. This is partly an echo of winter: establishments that closed in December–January listed their premises on the market. This also explains why rental prices in the cafe and restaurant category fell by 15% in 2025 — against the backdrop of a general increase in rental rates by 25% across commercial real estate in general.

In Lviv and Kharkiv, supply remained at January levels — in frontline Kharkiv, the market is constrained by security factors, while Lviv maintained relatively stable demand even in winter.

Demand outpaces supply

Demand responded more sharply: in Lviv, the number of rental inquiries increased by 45% compared to January, in Kyiv — by 40%. This means that entrepreneurs are searching for locations again — either those who survived the winter are expanding, or new players are entering the market while waiting for prices to drop.

"Even without full stabilization of electricity supply, warmer weather can change the situation. Some closed projects will return, other locations will be occupied by new players."

Olha Nasonova, director of the analytical center "Restaurants of Ukraine"

The forecast made in January is coming true — but with a question mark: Nasonova then predicted a "window of opportunity" for new operators due to cheaper rental prices. April demand confirms that some entrepreneurs see this window.

Why this is more than just statistics

Behind each rental listing is the decision of a specific person to take out a loan, open a sole proprietorship, or hire the first two employees. In 2025, the purchase of commercial real estate for cafes and restaurants increased by 17% — the largest among all commercial segments. This is long-term money: someone is betting that the demand to "go out and eat" will remain even during wartime.

However, the market has still not returned to April 2025 levels. A year ago, there were no such mass closures, no "restaurant crash" of December — and that baseline comparison remains out of reach.

If the summer season of 2026 does not bring another energy shock — the market has a chance to close the gap by autumn. If blackouts return in the same volume as in December–January, some of the establishments that just took leases in April will again display "for rent" signs by winter.