Ukraine's corn surplus forecast to reach 5 million tonnes
Demand for Ukrainian corn on the global market is falling as competition intensifies.
By Oleg Bazylewicz
November 28, 2025 · 1 min read
According to forecasts, Ukraine may end the 2025/26 export season with a corn surplus of 5 million tonnes, said ASAP Agri analyst Viktoriia Blazhko.
"If all realistic marketing channels are taken into account, Ukraine can achieve roughly the same export figures as last year — about 20 million tonnes. However, production this season will be higher — almost 31 million tonnes, which exceeds last year's 26.8 million tonnes. This creates an export potential of around 24.5 million tonnes," Blazhko said.
Harvesting in Ukraine is being delayed by weather conditions, grain drying periods are lengthening, and Russian attacks are complicating the logistical processes of delivering grain to ports.
At the same time, the global market is being offered record volumes of corn from the United States and South America, at attractive prices, with reliable logistics and active marketing in key markets.
"The 2025/26 season will be a serious test for Ukrainian corn exports. Demand is falling, competition is intensifying, and supply is increasing significantly, so Ukraine may end the year with a noticeable surplus of corn, which will affect prices across all segments, from producers to traders," Blazhko added.
- At the end of September the Ministry of Economy released initial harvest data: wheat and barley are at last year's levels, while the pea harvest has increased significantly.
