Quick hook

Reuters reports: due to sanctions and falling demand, Russian oil companies risk sharply cutting production in the coming months. This is not an abstract economic problem: lower oil revenues directly constrain funding for the war against Ukraine.

What happened

According to the agency and analysts, Russian oil exports are declining and storage facilities are filling up. Some of the supplies are accumulating on ships — their volume has risen in recent months to a record over 150 million barrels. At the same time, some tankers have slowed their pace, indicating falling demand and difficulties in selling the product.

Figures to know

According to Kpler, seaborne exports fell from 3.8 million barrels/day in December 2025 to 3.4 million b/d in January, and were about 2.8 million b/d in February. Onshore storage capacity is estimated at roughly 100 million barrels, while total Russian production is about 9.3 million b/d. It is this balance that creates the risk that the onshore buffer will be "exhausted" and pressure on exports will intensify.

What the experts say

"Output could fall to around 300,000 barrels per day in the period from March to May due to logistical constraints",

— Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis, Rystad Energy

Reuters and Kpler also note that while some demand is shifting to India and private Chinese buyers, their capacities are limited. On February 2, US President Donald Trump, after a conversation with Indian Prime Minister N. Modi, said that India had agreed to reduce official purchases of Russian oil — if confirmed, export pressure will rise even more.

Consequences for Russia and for Ukraine

Because of declining exports and growing discounts on Russian oil, the Kremlin's oil and gas revenues are already taking a serious hit: in January they fell by half compared with January 2025. Fewer revenues mean fewer resources to wage war and less economic resilience. For Ukraine this is an opportunity — sanctions and market pressure are beginning to translate into real economic losses for the aggressor.

What to watch next

A short list of indicators that will determine how the situation develops: the pace of monthly exports (Kpler), volumes of stocks on tankers, the discount on Russian oil, and the activity of private buyers in China and India. Political decisions by partners — from tightened controls to coordinated sanctions — will determine whether this trend remains temporary or turns into a systemic crisis for Russia's energy sector.

Analytical conclusion

Market constraints are already reducing the flow of money to the Kremlin. For Ukraine it is important that these results do not remain only lines in analytical reports: coordination among partners, enhanced monitoring and the political will to turn pressure into lasting economic constraints are needed — then the decline in the aggressor's revenues could become one of the factors that weaken its war machine.