Rheinmetall: the war will not end in 2026 — the manufacturer has more ammunition than contracts
Rheinmetall's CEO warns of a protracted conflict; the group proposes expanding production in Ukraine and could ramp up supplies, but faces a funding shortfall — what this means for the security and industrial resilience of our country.
By Tetiana Suchkova-Ladik
February 16, 2026 · 2 min read
Why this matters
In an interview with Table.Briefings, the CEO of the German conglomerate Rheinmetall, Armin Papperger, said that Russia's war against Ukraine "will not end in 2026." This is not just a forecast: according to him, the company is already producing more ammunition than it has contracts for — and at the same time sees the possibility of building capacities in Ukraine. For the reader, this means a simple fact: the need for ammunition and equipment may be long-term, and therefore the necessity of strategic planning for supplies and financing is real.
What Papperger said
"Russia is not interested in this"
— Armin Papperger, CEO of Rheinmetall
"We are producing more ammunition than we have contracts for. In some places, funding is lacking"
— Armin Papperger, CEO of Rheinmetall
In addition, Papperger said the company can supply additional air-defence systems, ammunition and tanks, and that in Europe, due to ramped-up production, ammunition prices are falling. Rheinmetall has also received a plot for an ammunition factory in Ukraine and is ready to begin construction, and after the purchase of the Luerssen unit is considering expansion in the naval sector.
Implications for Ukraine
First, the forecast of a protracted conflict underlines that what is needed is not just one-off aid but a structure of support — supplies, financing, logistics and a production base. Second, Rheinmetall's offer to expand production in Ukraine provides a practical opportunity to strengthen the country's defence capability and create local jobs, but this requires agreements on financing, protection of facilities and technology transfer.
Industrial context and the market
The presence of overproduction without corresponding funding is a typical symptom of a market that rapidly scaled up after 2022. This is a chance to reduce costs and build up stockpiles, but only if partner states turn intentions into contracts. The acquisition of Luerssen allows Rheinmetall to diversify its product line — notably towards naval systems — which could change the balance of supply in the European arms market.
What’s next
Defence-market analysts note: if partners do not secure funding, overproduction risks remaining unrealised, and the possibility of localising production in Ukraine may go unrealised. Therefore, the ball is now in the court of states and international financial institutions: declarations need to be converted into contracts and investments that will ensure both supplies to the front and the long-term resilience of industrial supply chains.
Source: Table.Briefings; quotes — Armin Papperger, CEO of Rheinmetall.
