While markets react to events in the Persian Gulf

According to Reuters, citing sources, Russian oil could reclaim the top spot in India's imports in March after being overtaken by Iraq in February. This shift is not merely a reshuffling of suppliers: it shows how geopolitical shocks quickly redistribute supply routes and affect prices — effects we in Ukraine ultimately feel as well.

What happened

In February, oil imports from Iraq to India rose to about 1.18 million barrels per day, while purchases from Saudi Arabia increased to approximately 998,000 barrels per day — the highest level since December 2021. Imports of Russian oil in February fell by roughly 32% year-on-year, to around 1 million barrels per day (Reuters).

"After the escalation in the Middle East began, supplies of Russian oil to India recovered to about 1.8 million barrels per day and could reach 2–2.2 million in March."

— Sumit Ritolia, lead analyst at Kpler

Why this is happening

The main driver is growing uncertainty in the Persian Gulf after strikes and escalation, which has complicated tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA estimates that in 2025 an average of about 20 million barrels per day, or roughly 25% of global seaborne oil trade, passed through the Strait of Hormuz — so any local disruption immediately hits balances.

In addition, the US temporarily allowed India to receive Russian oil that was already loaded onto tankers — an OFAC general license is in effect until April 4. That gave Indian refiners a reason to buy millions of barrels, boosting short-term supplies from Russia (Reuters).

Consequences for Ukraine

Rising global energy prices are reflected in the domestic fuel market: experts and journalists (for example, LIGA.net) are already linking the rapid rise in fuel prices in Ukraine to global supply shocks. At the same time, analysts note that even with increased demand Russia is selling oil at a significant discount to Brent, so short-term price rises do not necessarily mean a substantial recovery in Russian budget revenues — an assessment provided by Reuters.

According to CREA, Russia earned roughly €7.7 billion from fossil fuel exports in the first two weeks of the escalation in the Middle East — a figure that illustrates how quickly money flows into energy chains during crises.

What’s next

The short-term outlook will depend on two factors: the further evolution of the security situation in the Persian Gulf and the decisions of key players (for example, whether permissions for transit/purchase of Russian oil are extended or withdrawn). For Ukraine, this means increased volatility in oil product prices and a need for strategic reserves and diversification of supplies.

Conclusion: the restoration of Russian supplies to India is more a redistribution of risks and routes than a sustained "rescue" for the Russian budget. It is important for Ukraine to monitor these changes not as abstract statistics but as factors that directly affect the cost of living and logistics during the war.

Sources: Reuters, Kpler, IEA, OFAC (US Treasury), CREA, LIGA.net.