Briefly

According to Reuters estimates, at least 40% of Russia's oil export capacity — roughly 2 million barrels per day — is currently out of operation. This is a serious shock to Russian revenues and an important element of the energy picture that should be understood without panic, but with cold calculation.

"This is the largest disruption to oil supplies in modern Russian history."

— Reuters, agency calculations

Reasons for the shutdowns

Reuters highlights several key factors that together produced this effect:

Ukrainian strikes on infrastructure. Drone attacks on ports — notably Primorsk and Ust-Luga — have curtailed seaborne export capacity.

Detention of tankers in Europe. Periodic seizures of vessels linked to Russia have disrupted shipments from Murmansk by about 300,000 barrels per day.

Hit to the Druzhba pipeline. A strike on transport infrastructure itself — a complex factor that amplifies logistical disruptions and reduces transit to Europe.

Context and market impact

The disruptions occurred just as oil prices topped $100 a barrel amid heightened tensions in the region (including with Iran). At the same time, research from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) recorded that Russia earned about €7.7 billion from fossil fuel exports in the first two weeks after strikes in the region — underscoring how quickly the revenue balance shifts under geopolitical waves.

"Russia earned €7.7 billion from fossil fuel exports in the first two weeks of the war in Iran."

— CREA

How Moscow compensates

The effect cannot yet be fully negated: Russia is diverting flows through pipelines to China, ramping up seaborne exports of the ESPO grade via the port of Kozmino and projects it controls in the Far East (including production from Sakhalin). In addition, about 300,000 barrels per day are sent for refining in Belarus — a partial diversification, but one that does not fully restore volumes and revenues from European routes.

Reuters also noted that Russia's oil and gas revenues in March could fall sharply — by some estimates to 52% compared with the previous year, underscoring the large impact of logistical disruptions and sanctions.

What this means for Ukraine and partners

First, reduced export volumes undermine the Kremlin's tax and foreign-exchange base, directly affecting its ability to finance the war. Second, it strengthens the case for tougher sanctions and more coordinated measures to control shipping and risk insurance.

However, Russia can partially soften the blows by redirecting flows to Asia. Therefore, for pressure to be sustained, partners need not only temporary strikes on logistics but systemic tools — blocking evasion routes, financial restrictions, and strengthened oversight of shipping.

Conclusion

A reduction in oil exports of roughly ~2 million barrels per day is a real hit to Russian revenues and an important outcome of operations that include Ukrainian strikes and European measures. But this is not the end: whether democratic partners turn a temporary shock into a long-term mechanism of economic pressure depends on the speed of coordination, sanction discipline, and logistical control.

Now the ball is in the partners' court: declarations must be backed by concrete decisions that close off escape routes for the Kremlin's oil revenues.