What happened

French oil and gas company TotalEnergies announced a temporary suspension of production at a number of projects in the Middle East — notably in Qatar, Iraq and on the offshore of the United Arab Emirates. Reuters reports this citing the company's official statement.

"Operations at these sites have either already been suspended, or the shutdown process is in its final stage."

— TotalEnergies, official statement

Consequences for the company and markets

Total estimates that about 15% of its global production volume has been affected by the curbs — roughly 10% of cash flow in the production and sales segment. At the same time, the company says that a rise in oil prices of about $8 per barrel, triggered by the escalation between the US and Iran, will partly or fully offset this loss in the current year. Information provided by Reuters and the company.

Some assets continue to operate: onshore UAE fields, producing about 210,000 barrels per day, are unaffected and oil is being shipped via the port of Fujairah. The Satorp refinery in Saudi Arabia, which is critical for domestic supplies, is also operating unchanged.

What this means for trade and supplies

In the short term — higher price volatility and an increased risk of logistical disruptions. Total forecasts that the impact on the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market will be limited — losses in 2026 could reach around 2 million tonnes, which is not dramatic in a global context, but adds strain in tight segments. Earlier production cuts were reported by the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq; Saudi Arabia temporarily reduced shipments due to a shortage of storage capacity.

Why this matters for Ukraine

Unpredictability of oil and gas prices affects the global economy: higher energy prices raise costs for logistics, fuel and defense procurement. For Ukraine this means increased pressure on the budget and the need for more conservative planning of energy purchases and defense logistics. At the same time, volatility creates political space for our partners to accelerate diversification of supplies and increase energy stocks — steps that enhance collective resilience in the long term.

What’s next

TotalEnergies says it is bringing additional capacity online in other regions and has intensified dialogue with shareholders. For the market, the key question is how quickly losses can be offset and whether the short-term price rise will turn into a long-term trend. For Ukraine and its partners — whether they will use this moment to strengthen energy resilience and secure stable supply chains.

Sources: Reuters; official statement from TotalEnergies.