When the United States launched military operations against Iran on February 28, 2026, the average price of a gallon of gasoline in America had not yet reached $3. By mid-May, it had climbed to $4.52 — and this difference in cents translated into $41.5 billion in combined overpayments for gasoline and diesel across the country.

How it was calculated

Jeff Colgan, director of the Climate Solutions Lab and professor of international affairs at Brown University's Watson School, launched an online tracker that daily compares actual fuel prices from AAA data with a hypothetical "no-war scenario" — a baseline calculated based on five years of seasonal price dynamics before the conflict. The difference between the two curves, multiplied by actual consumption data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, yields the total overpayment amount.

"This is money coming directly out of the pockets of American consumers"

Jeff Colgan, Director of Climate Solutions Lab, Brown University

Independent verification comes from Patrick De Haan, head of fuel analysis at GasBuddy: by his estimate, since early March, Americans have spent an additional approximately $28 billion on gasoline alone, of which $22 billion was directly caused by the Iranian war. Two different methods — similar results.

What stands behind the figure

By mid-April, the average American family had already overpaid more than $150 compared to pre-war levels, and this amount continues to grow. According to AEI estimates, if prices remain at early-April levels, fuel costs per household will exceed $300 by June 30 and $550 by the end of September.

Diesel prices surged even more sharply: from $3.77 per gallon on February 27 to $5.45 in early April — an increase of about 45%. This hurts not just truck drivers. According to the American Trucking Associations, 72.5% of all freight by value in the United States is transported by diesel-powered vehicles. This means everyone who buys groceries, furniture, or building materials pays an indirect "fuel tax" — just with a week's delay.

The April consumer price index confirmed the scale: inflation accelerated to 3.8% on an annual basis — the highest in nearly three years. The surge in energy prices accounted for 40% of this jump. Jet fuel prices have soared approximately 85% since the start of the war, which is already reflected in ticket prices.

What is not counted in official reports

The Pentagon officially estimates direct military expenses at $29 billion. But this is only the expenditure portion of the budget. If you add $41.5 billion in consumer overpayments for fuel, the real "ticket price" for the American economy already exceeds $70 billion — and does not account for rising fertilizer prices, stock market losses, or the costs of restoring military infrastructure in the Middle East.

Colgan, speaking with the Brown Daily Herald student newspaper, noted: "There is much discussion about human and military costs — and there should be. But energy costs and their direct impact on people — are overlooked". According to him, the project will last months, even after combat operations end: fuel prices typically decline more slowly than they rise.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global oil trade passes, remains blocked. Economists warn: if the situation does not change before the start of the summer season of increased gasoline demand, the compounding effect — greater demand with the same limited supply — could drive $41.5 billion to new highs before the end of June.

The unanswered question: if the strait remains blocked through the end of September and diesel inflation fully passes through the supply chain, will Washington have time to formulate a clear "exit price" from the conflict — before the autumn congressional elections turn the calculator into the main campaign argument?