For 28,000 Ukrposhta employees who have endured several waves of layoffs and salary freezes, the figure from Igor Smilyansky's statement sounds like a signal: the company is finally in the black. For the first four months of 2025, total profit amounted to 106.3 million UAH, EBITDA improved from minus 13.6 to plus 122.9 million UAH — and this does not account for asset sales.

Equity, according to Smilyansky, reached 2.3 billion UAH. The contrast is striking: as of July 1, 2024, the NBU recorded it at minus 661.5 million UAH.

The source of the discrepancy

The difference between the company's data and the regulator's — is not an arithmetic error. Smilyansky explained back in autumn: "After the NBU changed the capital calculation methodology, it became minus 600 million. Nothing changed in the world, only the NBU changed the calculation". The NBU, for its part, called the company's financial condition critical in a letter to the government and estimated the need for recapitalization at least at 826 million UAH.

This dispute has concrete consequences: it is precisely because of it that the NBU blocks Ukrposhta's plan to launch its own bank based on PINbank. The National Bank proposed in September 2025 to the government to close PINbank altogether rather than transfer it to the postal operator.

What has actually changed

The trajectory is indisputable. In 2022, EBITDA was minus 462.8 million UAH, in 2023 — minus 22.9 million UAH, in 2024 — already plus 659.3 million UAH. Net loss for 2024 was cut nearly in half: from 796 to 413 million UAH. The main sources of those losses remained currency fluctuations (246.9 million UAH) and property expenses that were legally blocked from sale.

Now the company is actively selling off non-core assets. Through eight Prozorro auctions, over 13,000 square meters of real estate were sold — the starting price of 110 million UAH increased to over 517 million UAH during bidding. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Ukrposhta's net profit was 257.9 million UAH — 69% more than the same period in 2024, with a significant portion coming from these sales.

"On paper, Ukrposhta is still unprofitable, but already now international audit confirms that our EBITDA is positive. Losses are the servicing of currency loans and lost income from blocked property".

Igor Smilyansky, General Director of Ukrposhta

What this means for the state and the customer

Ukrposhta is the only operator that has physical presence in all communities, including frontline ones. Its unprofitability would mean either budget injections or service degradation where there are no alternatives. The 2026 budget project submitted by the government to the Verkhovna Rada contains not a single line for company recapitalization — this is either evidence of trust in the operational turnaround, or deferring the decision for later.

Under the baseline scenario, which assumes annual revenue growth of 9%, profit before tax in 2025 was to amount to 0.23 billion UAH, by 2028 — 0.40 billion UAH. The first four months fit into this. However, the fourth quarter 2025 profit was significantly dependent on one-time real estate sales — rather than organic business growth.

• EBITDA for 2024: +659.3 million UAH (year prior — minus 22.9 million UAH)
• Revenue for 2024: 12.9 billion UAH (+12.1%)
• Profit for January–April 2025: 106.3 million UAH
• Equity as of May 2025: 2.3 billion UAH (according to company data)
• NBU assessment of capital deficit (May 2025): minus 820 million UAH

If by year-end Ukrposhta confirms positive capital under NBU methodology without asset sales — this will be evidence that the operational turnaround is real. If not — the recapitalization question will return to parliament's agenda already during the 2027 budget process.