When the United States war with Iran began in late February, Indian oil refineries faced an arithmetic problem: nearly half of their imports traditionally passed through the Strait of Hormuz. The route closed — and they had to search for alternatives on the other side of the planet.

Venezuela in the top five — but not due to reforms

Supplies from Venezuela to India increased by almost 50% compared to April, according to energy tracking data. Brazil became the fourth largest supplier, while Venezuela took fifth place — and, according to Kpler, may become fourth in May.

The paradox is that Venezuela remains under American sanctions. The country has an estimated 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, but produces less than 1% of global supply after years under sanctions pressure. Now, however, Washington — which took control of Venezuela's oil industry after Maduro's takeover — effectively manages who and how much to sell to.

Two sanctioned oils as the main diet

About half of India's oil imports typically come from Persian Gulf countries through Hormuz — but the narrow passage became inaccessible due to escalating conflict surrounding Iran.

India recently resumed imports of Iranian oil after a seven-year pause thanks to partial sanctions relief — but these supplies stopped again due to the American naval blockade. Meanwhile, supplies from Saudi Arabia — the former third supplier — nearly halved: from 670,000 barrels per day in April to approximately 340,000 in May.

Russia remains a lifeline, but even that is shrinking. India reduced imports from Russia by 29.4% from March levels — to 1.6 million barrels per day — after the Nayara Energy refinery shut down for repairs. Delhi continues to receive Russian oil under a 30-day US sanctions waiver, but analysts say this is only a temporary measure: Washington's pressure to abandon Russian energy is intensifying.

«India's options now are essentially sanctioned Russian oil or heavy Venezuelan»

— Mark Ayoub, energy policy researcher, Al Jazeera

The geopolitical trap of diversification

India is increasing purchases of Russian oil amid an energy crisis that irritates Washington, which claims these revenues finance Russia's war against Ukraine. Before the Iranian war, Prime Minister Modi promised to abandon Russian oil and instead buy from the US and Venezuela. Now he buys from all three — and none of the options is either stable or safe in terms of sanctions risks.

The American Treasury Department introduced a targeted sanctions waiver to stabilize markets — and as a result, Indian refineries became the main beneficiaries, effectively intercepting sanctioned oil from China.

If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked until the end of summer, India will face a choice with no good outcome: either officially consolidate dependence on Venezuelan oil under American control — and thereby admit that diversification means only replacing one patron with another — or enter into open conflict with Washington by continuing to take Russian oil.