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2025 harvest larger than last year's, but exports under threat

The Ukrainian Grain Association estimates the 2025 harvest at 81.4 million tonnes (versus 79 million in 2024). Potential exports total 49 million tonnes, but shipments could be complicated by attacks on infrastructure; a crop-by-crop breakdown and a forecast for 2026 are included.

Tetiana Suchkova-Ladik

By Tetiana Suchkova-Ladik

December 4, 2025 · 1 min read

2025 harvest larger than last year's, but exports under threat

The Ukrainian Grain Association forecasts the 2025 harvest of cereals and oilseeds at 81.4 million tonnes. For comparison: in 2024 the harvest amounted to 79 million tonnes.

Overall harvest estimate

The association points to potential exports of about 49 million tonnes versus 46.7 million tonnes last season. At the same time, achieving this volume is in doubt due to military strikes on critical infrastructure that complicate logistics.

Logistical problems from strikes on the energy sector, railways and ports create risks for exports and the country's balance of payments

– Ukrainian Grain Association

Assessment by crops

  • Corn — 32 million tonnes (2024: 25.9 million), potential exports — 25 million tonnes.
  • Wheat — 22.5 million tonnes (2024: 22.4 million), potential exports — 16.5 million tonnes.
  • Sunflower — 11.5 million tonnes (2024: 12.8 million), almost the entire volume is planned to be processed in Ukraine.
  • Soybeans — 5 million tonnes (2024: 6.8 million), potential exports — 2.5 million tonnes.
  • Barley — 4.9 million tonnes (2024: 5.6 million), potential exports — 2.3 million tonnes.
  • Rapeseed — 3.2 million tonnes (2024: 3.8 million), potential exports — 2.1 million tonnes.

Forecast for 2026

The association notes that areas sown with winter crops are already known. If spring sowings do not decline, the 2026 harvest could reach 84.5 million tonnes, with export potential of about 50 million tonnes.

At the end of September the Ministry of Economy published the first official estimates: wheat and barley matched last year's volumes, while the pea harvest proved larger.

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