Bookmakers give 44%: Jerry Heil leads Ukraine's national selection for Eurovision 2026 — what it means for Ukraine
Bookmakers' odds have made Jerry Heil the favorite with a 44% chance. We examine why these figures differ from social media popularity and what strategic significance this holds for Ukraine's Eurovision entry.
By Tetiana Suchkova-Ladik
January 19, 2026 · 2 min read
Why this matters
The national selection for Eurovision 2026 has entered a crucial phase: artists have presented their songs and already know the running order for the final, which will take place on 7 February. According to UNN and betting-market analysts, the first market expectation is now forming about whom not only Ukrainian viewers but also the international audience may support.
Top 3 by odds
Jerry Heil — "Catharticus (Prayer)": about 44% chance of victory — the clear favorite in the bets.
LELÉKA — "Ridnym": approximately 20%.
Monokate — "ТYТ": about 18%, keeping the intrigue.
Valeriya Force and ЩукаРиба, according to bookmakers' estimates, have minimal chances — around 1%.
What lies behind these numbers
Odds are not only a bet on the quality of the song; they reflect a combination of factors: the volume of real bets, international interest, the possibility of a high-quality stage concept, and the team's readiness to work for a big effect. Because of this, market expectations often differ from social-media metrics or streaming counts.
"Odds show not only popularity within fandoms, but also how a song will be perceived on the international stage — from the English-language content of the lyrics to the potential of the stage production."
— a representative of betting-market analytics
Streaming popularity vs. the betting market
The example of Valeriya Force illustrates the gap: her track is in the top three for streams, but bookmakers give her the smallest percentage. This underlines the difference between local popularity and the assessment of who can gather votes from the international public and juries.
What this means for Ukraine
Bookmakers' odds do not determine the outcome of the final, but they provide an immediate indicator of who foreign viewers and attention investors are backing. For Ukraine, it matters not only who wins but how the team prepares the performance — from the arrangement to the visual concept — to turn domestic support into international points.
Conclusion
While social media shapes narratives and emotions, market indicators show different priorities. The key task for the Ukrainian representative's team is to connect homegrown energy with international perception. Whether the favorite can convert 44% of bookmakers' confidence into a real result on stage — we'll see on 7 February.
