On May 16, US President Donald Trump gathered a narrow circle at his golf club in Virginia: Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff. The agenda — what to do with Iran next. According to CNN citing sources familiar with the negotiations, the next meeting on this topic is scheduled for early in the week.

What's on the table

The Pentagon has prepared several options for military action in case Trump decides to resume strikes. Among the targets, according to CNN, are Iran's energy and infrastructure facilities. This is a qualitatively different type of pressure compared to June 2025, when seven B-2 bombers dropped 14 GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs on Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan as part of Operation "Midnight Hammer".

Then, as NBC later reported citing five current and former officials, only Fordow sustained significant damage — and that set back by approximately two years. Natanz and Isfahan partially survived: the bunker-busting bombs did not reach all underground levels. The White House denied this.

"Iran's nuclear facilities at Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz have been completely and totally destroyed".

Pentagon Spokesperson Sean Parnell — in response to the NBC report

Why negotiations have reached a dead end

Since April 2025, the US and Iran have conducted four rounds of negotiations mediated by Oman. The stumbling block — uranium enrichment. Washington, through Witkoff, demands the complete dismantling of three nuclear facilities and the transfer of all enriched uranium. Tehran proposed a ten-year pause on enrichment with subsequent limited resumption — the US rejected this.

In parallel, Iran is keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed, through which approximately 20% of global oil trade passes. According to CNN, this is what irritates Trump the most — due to its direct impact on global oil prices and his own economic narrative.

On May 18, Trump formulated his position concisely in an interview with Axios:

"Time is running out. They better act quickly, or there will be nothing left of them".

Donald Trump — Axios, May 18, 2025

What's missing from public discourse

From the Iranian side, according to the same CNN sources, there are no signals of willingness to concede. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf stated that the only option is recognition of the "rights of the Iranian people" enshrined in the ceasefire proposal. Tehran is also, according to media reports, ramping up its missile infrastructure along the Strait of Hormuz and, according to some accounts, evacuated part of its nuclear materials even before the June strikes.

• 50,000+ American military personnel remain in the region following the ceasefire
• Two aircraft carriers — USS Abraham Lincoln is heading to the Middle East but has not yet arrived
• Interceptor stockpiles are depleted by operations in Yemen, Iran, and support for Ukraine and Taiwan

Retired Vice Admiral Robert Harward, former deputy commander of CENTCOM, noted in a comment to The Hill that the absence of a full fleet in the region "limits strike potential," but does not eliminate it: "There is still considerable striking power in the bag".

The logic of pressure

Strikes on energy and infrastructure facilities are not a continuation of "Midnight Hammer," but a different tool: not the destruction of the nuclear program, but economic and social pressure from within. Saudi Arabia, according to media reports, is already proposing to allies the idea of a non-aggression pact between regional countries and Iran — suggesting that the diplomatic window is not yet closed.

If the next round of negotiations does not yield even a framework agreement — will Trump risk strikes on infrastructure, knowing that this will permanently close the Strait of Hormuz and hit the very oil prices he uses to justify his pressure?