Ukraine's defense-industrial complex is ramping up production, but is hitting a ceiling that cannot be broken by money or contracts — the human resource shortage. This is the main conclusion of a study conducted jointly by the Ukrainian Weapons Makers Council and the CORE Team analytical group following a survey of 27 companies in the sector.

The situation within the industry looks paradoxical: enterprises receive orders, sign contracts, open new production lines — and at the same time cannot fill vacancies for months. The deficit concerns not only narrow engineering specialties, but also mid-level production personnel, without which it is impossible to scale output.

Mobilization as a structural problem

Part of the answer lies on the surface: men of draft age — the main base of skilled workers and technical specialists — are subject to mobilization legislation. Exemptions for defense industry workers exist, but their implementation remains bureaucratically complex and unevenly applied. Companies that have resources and legal support can guide their people through this procedure; smaller enterprises cannot.

This creates an asymmetry: large market players concentrate protected specialists, while medium and small manufacturers remain vulnerable to sudden personnel losses.

Retraining lags behind

The education system is not yet responding to industry demands in real time. Universities and technical schools train specialists according to programs that have not been reviewed for military production needs. Defense companies are forced to train people themselves — and this costs both time and money, which most of them have in short supply.

The study notes that some companies have already switched to internal training programs, but this is an individual solution rather than a systemic response from the state.

Growth without foundation

The defense industry has received unprecedented funding and demand. But growth in production capacity without corresponding staffing — this is a structure that can collapse under its own weight. Orders that are not fulfilled on time due to lack of personnel — this is not only a reputational risk for companies, but also a direct impact on the pace of military rearmament.

If the state does not synchronize policies on exemptions, retraining, and education with the actual demand of the defense sector in the coming period — will the industry manage to increase production before the personnel shortage becomes a more limiting factor than financing?