Poland's Ministry of Internal Affairs announced a result that Warsaw presents as a victory: the number of work visas issued to foreigners has fallen by 87%. "In order to protect the labor market, we managed to restrict abuse in the issuance of work permits," the ministry stated. This is the entire official message. But statistics have another side.

What lies behind the 87% figure

The sharp reduction is not simply a result of "fighting abuse." Starting January 1, 2025, new rules for employing foreigners came into force in Poland: mandatory labor contracts, stricter employer controls, enhanced criminal liability for violations. The system has effectively halted the mass flow of work permits through intermediaries — this very channel had provided a significant portion of previous statistics.

In parallel, the reservoir of migrant workers itself is shrinking. According to Polish ZUS data, at the end of February 2024, Poland had 690,000 Ukrainian workers — 4.6% fewer than two years earlier. Some are returning to Ukraine, some are moving to Germany, where wages are higher.

The paradox: fewer visas — greater shortage

The Polish economy is entering a demographic trap. According to forecasts from Poland's Central Statistical Office, by 2060 the country's population will shrink by 6.7 million people. Construction, logistics, and manufacturing are already experiencing labor shortages — and these are precisely the sectors that have traditionally relied on foreign workers.

"The potential for immigration from countries with a similar cultural past, such as Ukraine and Belarus, is gradually being exhausted."

Polish economists, cited by Obozrevatel

Surveys confirm the contradiction between government rhetoric and business sentiment: 73% of Poles believe the country should remain open to skilled foreign workers, Liga.net reports, citing Polish sociological data.

A new strategy without ready answers

The Ministry of Internal Affairs is developing a migration strategy for 2025–2030 — Poland has not had an official such document since 2016. As etias.com reports, the strategy was supposed to be ready by the beginning of Poland's EU presidency. Meanwhile, according to Fragomen, Poland is simultaneously implementing a new EU directive on the "Blue Card" — an instrument for attracting highly qualified specialists rather than seasonal workers.

In other words, the vector is clear: less cheap labor through informal schemes — more legal but selective channels. The question is whether the new architecture will manage to meet market demand before the shortage starts to hamper GDP growth.

If Poland truly closes mass labor migration channels but fails to launch an effective system for attracting qualified personnel by 2026–2027, the construction and logistics sectors will be the first to feel it in the form of rising costs and missed deadlines.