Briefly

Investment company Dragon Capital has updated its macroeconomic forecast for 2026–2027 and laid out two scenarios: the baseline — continuation of active hostilities, and an alternative — establishment of a stable ceasefire in mid-2026. This assessment is important not only for markets: it shapes the expectations of donors, investors and the state budget.

What the forecast says

“Dragon Capital's baseline scenario is based on the assumption that active hostilities will continue and Russia will keep destroying Ukraine's critical infrastructure.”

— Dragon Capital, macroeconomic forecast (27.03.2026)

In numbers this means: GDP growth of 1.5% in 2026 (previously forecast at 1%) and only 0.5% in 2027. If there are no new strikes on the energy sector, 2026 growth could jump to 3.5%. But more extensive infrastructure damage would mean even slower recovery.

Dragon Capital also sees pressure on the national currency: an expected devaluation of about 7% to 45.5 UAH/$ in 2026 and a further 5% to 48.0 UAH/$ in 2027. At the same time, inflation rates are expected to stabilize, while the external trade deficit will remain record-high.

Alternative scenario: ceasefire and a demographic challenge

“After the war, only 15% of refugees will return to Ukraine, or about 1 million people, of whom approximately 0.3 million will join the workforce.”

— Dragon Capital, macroeconomic forecast (27.03.2026)

This means that even in the event of peace, the main problem for the economy could become a sharp labor shortage. The labor market has already experienced several shocks — the pandemic, mass migration, war, and the rapid development of digital technologies and artificial intelligence. As LIGA.net wrote, this has caused a paradox: experienced specialists are increasingly competing with less experienced candidates or those with minimal formal experience.

Consequences for the country and citizens

For the state: the need to combine rapid repair of critical infrastructure with programs to return and employ those who come back. For business: investment planning that takes into account the risk of regular energy supply disruptions or, conversely, preparation for labor shortages and boosting productivity through automation and training.

For every Ukrainian, this is a question of income and price security: devaluation and a high import deficit affect the cost of energy, fuel and essential goods.

What to do — brief recommendations

Analysts advise focusing on three areas: protecting energy infrastructure, accelerated repair and modernization of networks, and investment in human capital — retraining, adapting educational programs to the labor market and incentives to bring specialists back.

Conclusion

Dragon Capital's forecast is not a verdict but a roadmap of risks. If partners and the private sector do not increase support for infrastructure recovery and employment programs, the baseline scenario will mean slower recovery and greater pressure on the exchange rate and prices. Now the ball is in the court of those who set budgets and make investment decisions: will declarations be transformed into concrete investments and programs?