Briefly

According to the SZRU (Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine), the average daily rate of price growth in Russia for the first 12 days of January rose to 0.104% versus 0.014% at the end of 2025. This is not a typical winter fluctuation spike — the indicator points to structural problems in supply and logistics.

What is getting more expensive — and why

The largest price increases have been for basic consumer goods: food, medicines and transport fares. Factors include supply disruptions in the fruit-and-vegetable segment, higher excise taxes and rising fuel prices, which push up logistics costs.

“The sharpest price increases were recorded in the food sector, primarily fruit and vegetable products, where prices rose on average by 7.9%. Cucumbers have become more than 21% more expensive, tomatoes — by 13.6%, which significantly exceeds the typical winter level and indicates problems with supply and logistics.”

— SZRU (Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine)

At the same time, socially sensitive categories are becoming more expensive: baby food, pork, alcohol — partly due to fiscal pressure. Meanwhile, consumer electronics are showing price declines, which confirms that inflation is concentrated not in luxury purchases but in households' basic expenses.

Fuel increases of 1.2–1.3% amplify secondary effects: logistics become more expensive, which is transmitted into higher prices in other sectors. Metro fares rose by 10.7%, trams by 5.4%, and utility tariffs are also increasing — all of this adds pressure to family budgets.

Consequences

Inflation that hits basic expenses has two important characteristics: it strikes fastest at those least able to compensate for the costs, and it undermines social stability within the country.

“Taken together, these trends point to a deepening of economic problems in Russia in 2026. Inflation is increasingly moving into the realm of basic expenses — transport, utilities, medicines and food.”

— SZRU (Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine)

Why this matters for Ukraine

Economic deterioration in the neighbor has direct and indirect effects on our security. On the one hand, increased internal pressure may limit the resources Moscow devotes to external operations. On the other hand, economic strain is often accompanied by intensification of internal politics, potential strengthening of repressions and instability, which creates risks for regional security and migration flows.

Analysts note: while we are recording these signals, it is important not to confuse them with an immediate weakening of the threat. Ukraine's strategic interest is to monitor developments and work with partners to strengthen economic resilience and information countermeasures.

One final question: will these statistical signals turn into long-term structural problems in Russia — and how will that change the balance of power in the region? The answer will take time, but it is already worth closely tracking indicators and preparing for scenarios.