Inflation Rises for First Time in Eight Months — 1% in February and What It Means for Prices and the Budget
The State Statistics Service reported a slight acceleration of inflation in February. We analyze why this happened, which goods were hit hardest, and what to expect next from the NBU and the market.
By Tetiana Suchkova-Ladik
March 10, 2026 · 2 min read
Briefly
We set aside emotions and analyze the facts. According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, consumer prices in Ukraine in February 2026 compared with January rose by 1.0%, and in year-on-year terms — by 7.6% (in January it was 7.4%). This is the first month of rising annual inflation after an eight-month period of slowdown that began after the peak in May 2025 (15.9%).
"Consumer prices in Ukraine in February 2026 compared with January rose by 1.0%, and in year-on-year terms — compared with February 2025 — by 7.6%."
— State Statistics Service of Ukraine
Details — what became more expensive
On a monthly basis, core inflation (excluding seasonal and administrative fluctuations) amounted to 0.7%, year-on-year — 7.0%. The most noticeable changes: vegetables +13.0%, while clothing and footwear became cheaper by 2.7%. These differences show that the main pressure now comes from the food segment, which is sensitive to seasonality and harvests.
Why this happened
The explanations combine several factors: a partial reflection of the effects of the 2025 harvest (which should restrain prices), but at the same time — pressure from large-scale destruction in the energy sector, which affects both market and administrative pricing mechanisms. In addition, the low base effect may produce a moderate acceleration in the second half of the year.
"The National Bank believes that inflation will be roughly at the same level as now at the end of the year."
— National Bank of Ukraine
Consequences for households and policy
What this means for households: rising food prices, especially for seasonal vegetables, will be felt most by the most vulnerable budgets. For businesses — a signal to control costs and be flexible in supply chains. For public policy, the main task is to combine the National Bank’s monetary restraint with urgent restoration of the energy infrastructure and support for the agricultural sector to reduce price volatility.
Brief conclusion
The slight acceleration of inflation in February is not a reason for panic, but an indicator that economic stability depends on two things: the resilience of the energy system and the realisation of harvest effects. Analysts and regulators agree that inflation can be controlled, but this requires a combination of prudent monetary policy and accelerated restoration of infrastructure. Whether inflation can be kept near current levels is a matter of policy and the speed of recovery in critical sectors.
