Brief — numbers and trend

Ukraine's real GDP grew by 1.8% in 2025, according to the preliminary estimate of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Nominal GDP amounted to UAH 8.93 trillion. This is the lowest annual increase in three years, although there was a noticeable pickup at the end of the year: Q1 +0.9%, Q2 +0.7%, Q3 +2.1%, Q4 +3%.

"Ukraine's real gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 1.8% in 2025"

— State Statistics Service of Ukraine

Why growth remains modest

The reasons are structural: four years of war-related destruction have wiped out about one third of GDP, the economy remains dependent on external aid, and repeated attacks on the energy sector are slowing the recovery of production and investment. It is the combination of security and structural factors that is restraining the pace of recovery.

"In January the National Bank lowered its forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth in 2026 to 1.8% due to Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure."

— National Bank of Ukraine

What drove the year-end pickup

Key impulses: the shift of the harvest into Q4, which boosted the agricultural sector, and increased budgetary spending. These provided temporary domestic demand, but stable recovery requires investment in logistics, energy security and infrastructure repair.

What this means for Ukrainians

Gradual growth is a chance to restore jobs and services, but it also risks putting pressure on the state budget and increases the need for continued external funding. For citizens it is important that international assistance be directed not only to current payments but also to investments that create jobs and strengthen the resilience of the economy.

Forecasts and main risks

Forecasts vary depending on the war scenario. The National Bank has already revised its expectations for 2026 to 1.8%. In a baseline scenario the EBRD forecasts 2.5% for 2026 and 4.0% for 2027 — provided the war ends. Thus the main risk is the duration of the conflict and the scale of international support.

"The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development updated its baseline scenario: assuming the war continues through 2026, the bank forecasts real GDP growth of 2.5% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027 — if the war ends."

— European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)

Conclusion

The 2025 figures show that recovery is underway but fragile. Durable growth requires a combination of three elements: secure infrastructure, targeted public and private investment, and stable external financial flows. The decisive task now is to turn partners' declarations into signed contracts and instruments that deliver long-term effects. Whether there will be enough political will and resources for this remains an open question.