EBRD: under a war scenario, Ukraine’s GDP will grow 2.5% in 2026; peace would bring 4.0%
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has updated its baseline forecast: the war in 2026 will curb the recovery, but the economy is showing unexpected resilience. Why this matters for government policy and investors.
By Tetiana Suchkova-Ladik
February 26, 2026 · 2 min read
What the EBRD reported
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development updated its baseline scenario for Ukraine assuming the war with Russia will continue throughout 2026. Under this scenario the bank forecasts real GDP growth of 2.5% in 2026. If the war ends, expected growth would be 4.0% in 2027.
Key figures and dynamics
The EBRD’s previous forecast assumed a ceasefire and growth of 5.0% thanks to post‑war reconstruction. For 2025 Ukraine’s real GDP grew by 2.0%, with growth accelerating in the second half of the year — from 0.8% in the first half to 3.0% in the fourth quarter.
"Despite the fact that the war continues to inflict significant human and economic losses, the Ukrainian authorities, businesses and partners have demonstrated a considerable capacity to stabilize the economy under unprecedented conditions"
— European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)
Risks restraining recovery
The EBRD names a number of factors that affected the forecast: electricity shortages following attacks on infrastructure, a weaker harvest, labor shortages and the destruction of logistics and infrastructure. Trade deficits also increased due to reduced grain exports and the end of temporary EU trade preferences.
In January the National Bank already lowered its own GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 1.8%, citing Russian attacks on the energy sector — this confirms that the key risk remains systemic.
Why this matters for Ukrainians and partners
The EBRD forecast is not just numbers. It conveys two important messages: first, even under a prolonged‑war scenario the economy can slowly but steadily stabilize; second, peace offers a noticeably higher recovery trajectory. For citizens this means measured optimism about jobs and the restoration of services; for the government and businesses — a reminder of priorities: energy resilience, agricultural productivity and the restoration of logistics.
What next?
Analysts agree: the EBRD forecast is a signal to donors and investors. The forecast itself does not guarantee investment — concrete decisions are needed: contracts, project financing and support for energy infrastructure. The question is whether partners will turn the assessments into real support instruments that will allow recovery to accelerate.
Source: EBRD report; comments and assessments by the National Bank of Ukraine.
